Last Thursday, my wife and I had drinks with Chrys Wu, at Jimmy’s Corner. She asked if it seemed to us that everyone was getting pregnant, because a number of friends of her were indeed pregnant. Interesting. We have been noticing the same, as if it were viral.

It might be the age. As there is a time in your life when everyone seems to be getting married. I presume there is a time in your life when everyone seems to be getting pregnant.

I order another beer and see, behind the bar, a sign that reads “Not Arguing About Politics Here”. And I go in for the kill. I turn around and say: “It’s the economy”.

I remember reading an article on a study that said that people appreciate family in recession times. Maybe we don’t enjoy loneliness that much during a storm.

“It would be great to see if recession times correlate with an increase in birth rate,” I say.

My wife gives me a little smile and drops: “Oh! I can see a graphic already.” And she and Chrys Wu start laughing. Hm! I don’t find it that funny.

The following data is from the National Center for Health Statistics. G.D.P. data is from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

I try to find a pattern here and hypothetize. Let’s leave aside the rational issues we weigh up when we decide to have a baby: how expensive it is, how am I suppose to pay for college … Having a baby is synonym of hope — an encouraging notion, hope this is, in times of crisis.

“At the precipice, we change” says Klaatu in “The Day the Earth Stood Still” — great quote, terrible movie. In times of turmoil, we become more sentimental. We decide to have children because we foresee a better future. Or maybe I’m just too naive.

Obviously an increase in birth rate wouldn’t coincide exactly with the recessions. A pregnancy takes 38 weeks, nine months, three quarters of a year. So we move the recession periods forward one year.

Do people decide to have more kids during recession? It is not conclusive, but there is a hint of a trend.

But two things strike me the most by looking at both charts. First it’s how the increase in the G.D.P. in the sixties and early seventies mirrors the collapsing birth rates in the same period. And following my hypothesis, it seems like whenever we enjoy economic prosperity, we forget about the future. Or maybe I’m just trying to make sense of a visual coincidence.

Second it’s the significant drop in 2008 birth rate. My guess is that the same way we may decide to have children in times of crisis hoping for a better future, when we see how the economy slows down and predict a downturn — and we saw this one coming, long ago — we are more reluctant to have them.

I’m afraid that in order to prove our personal consideration that this mini baby boom is related to the economy, we may have to wait to be out of the recession and count the rugrats then.

Anyway, and for now, my congratulations to all the moms and dads-to-be.

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